BYU NewsNet - BYU in BCS Contention -- Barely

In what has already been one of the zaniest years in college football history, hold on. It may get a whole lot zanier.

Despite starting the season with two losses in its first three games, including a 55-47 loss at Tulsa, the BYU football team is still alive for a BCS bowl game.

Such a notion would have been deemed impossible nine weeks ago. But with the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country losing eight times so far this season, just one team remaining undefeated and only four teams with just one loss, the Cougars have a glimmer of hope.

"Definitely couldn't have predicted it and if it happens, awesome," senior linebacker Bryan Kehl said. "It gives you hope. Will it happen? I don't know. If it did, we'd all be very, very excited. College football is in a jumbled mess this year and nobody's been able to predict the upsets that have happened."

The BCS, or Bowl Championship Series, is a selection system designed to have the top two teams in college football compete against each other for the National Championship. The system also selects teams to play in four other major bowl games: the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta.

Who plays in which BCS bowl game is based on a complicated set of rules with the top two teams in the final BCS standings awarded automatic bids into the BCS championship game. The BCS standings are determined based on a combination of polls and computer-generated rankings that reward teams based on strength of schedule and strength of victories.

The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10 and SEC conferences, also known as BCS conferences, are awarded automatic bids into a BCS bowl game. The highest ranked champion of any other conference (Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference, Western Athletic Conference) would be invited to a BCS bowl game if it was either ranked in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings or ranked in the Top 16 of the final BCS standings but higher than any other BCS conference champion. Notre Dame, a team that is currently not associated with any conference, receives a BCS bowl game invitation if it finishes in the Top 8 of the final BCS standings.

So what has to happen for BYU, currently ranked at No. 19 in the BCS standings, to participate in a BCS bowl game?

First off, BYU (9-2, 7-0 MWC) has to defeat San Diego State (4-7, 3-4 MWC) this Saturday evening. If BYU loses, no matter what happens with any other team, BYU will drop too far in the BCS standings to be considered.

Secondly, Washington (4-8, 2-7 Pac-10) must defeat No. 12 Hawaii (11-0, 8-0 WAC). One important rule the BCS has is that only one team from a non-BCS conference can qualify for a BCS bowl game. That means if Hawaii defeats Washington, they would get the automatic BCS bowl invitation, and BYU would be left out.

Even if BYU were to defeat San Diego State, the BCS would most likely not allow a two-loss team like BYU to play in a BCS game over an undefeated Hawaii team.

If BYU and Washington both win, BYU can receive an automatic bowl bid if one of two scenarios is fulfilled.

The least convoluted of the two scenarios involves UCLA (6-5, 5-3 Pac-10) defeating No. 8 USC (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10) and Arizona (5-6, 4-4 Pac-10) defeating No. 13 Arizona State (9-2, 6-2 Pac-10). USC currently controls its own destiny in terms of winning the Pac-10. If the Trojans defeat the Bruins on Saturday, they will win the Pac-10. However, should USC slip up and lose, Arizona State would then control its own destiny.

If Arizona were to then defeat Arizona State, a four-way tie would occur in the Pac-10 between UCLA, USC, Arizona State and either Oregon or Oregon State. Based on Pac-10 tie-breaking rules, UCLA would then win the Pac-10.

UCLA would win the Pac-10, BYU would finish ahead of Hawaii in the Top 16, and therefore, BYU would receive the automatic BCS bid for finishing ahead of UCLA.

If Hawaii loses, but UCLA doesn't win the Pac-10, a second scenario is still possible that would propel BYU into a BCS bowl game that involves the Cougars finishing in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings.

Although the Cougars' win over Utah helped them jump six spots in the BCS standings, jumping seven more spots into the Top 12 would be difficult.

Hawaii's loss would help the Cougars jump them, however, the Cougars would still need to jump six other teams currently ahead of them. Arizona State, Tennessee, Illinois, Clemson, Oregon and Wisconsin currently are ranked between Hawaii and BYU.

The other three teams currently ahead of BYU, No. 15 Illinois (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten), No. 16 Clemson (9-3, 5-3 ACC) and No. 18 Wisconsin (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten) are all finished with their regular season schedules and idle this week. Jumping those three teams relies heavily on how the Cougars play against the Aztecs.

Because the BCS takes into account strength of schedule and strength of victory, it would likely require BYU to not only defeat San Diego State, but decisively do so, to justify jumping teams that are idle. Merely squeaking by may not be enough.

Other less likely possibilities exist if BYU can climb into the Top 14. Teams in the Top-14 that have nine wins are considered "at-large" teams. After the automatic berths have been granted, individual bowl committees vote to determine who will receive the additional invitations from a pool of "at-large" teams.

Regardless of how slim the BCS thread the Cougars find themselves currently dangling by may be, winning eight straight and procuring their second consecutive conference championship has enabled them to be dangling at all.

"Consideration comes through winning," head coach Bronco Mendenhall said.

Consideration for a BCS bowl game, a game that would put BYU on the national stage, has generated intense excitement in Provo among Cougar fans.

"I'd definitely drop any plans I had," said freshman Heather Barton, 18, from Springville, Utah

"I think it would be sweet to shove it in everyone's faces," said Barton's friend, Emily Reynolds, 18, from Fort Walton Beach, Fla.

Some critics will point to BYU's schedule and argue that the Cougars couldn't compete if put in a bowl game with LSU, Florida, West Virginia, and other nationally respected teams.

However, Barton and Reynolds don't find any merit to those arguments.

"Just because we don't have the opportunity to play better teams doesn't mean we couldn't play well," Barton said. "I think they'd step it up."

"They can't say anything until they see us play," Reynolds said.

Despite the excitement, Mendenhall emphasized the only thing the Cougars have control over is how they play and that is therefore their soul focus heading into San Diego State.

"We will work to finish strong and that's all we will consider," he said.

Running back Harvey Unga, who was named Mountain West Conference co-offensive player of the week for his 168 yards of total offense on Saturday, said while some players may get excited about the possibilities of playing in a BCS bowl game, they are the exception.

"For the most part, we're not worried about the BCS," Unga said. "We're focused on what we have to do and we'll let the rest fall into place."

Kicker Mitch Payne, who was named Mountain West Conference special teams player of the week for his three field goals Saturday, said Mendenhall won't allow the team to get too caught up.

"Playing in a BCS bowl game would be fun, but Coach Mendenhall keeps us thinking the right things," Payne said. "He keeps things in perspective and the players take the mentality of the coaches."

What are the chances?

This won't be the first time BYU will need a bunch of lucky breaks to go their way. In 1984, the Cougars needed just as many to become the unanimous No. 1 team in the nation.

Nov. 10, 1984

No. 4 BYU defeats San Diego State 34-3 while No. 1 Washington lost 16-7 to USC and No. 2 Texas lost 29-15 to Houston.

Nov. 17, 1984

No. 3 BYU defeats Utah 24-14 while No. 1 Nebraska lost 17-7 to Oklahoma and No. 2 South Carolina lost 38-21 to Navy.

Key matchups this Saturday

No. 19 BYU at SDSU - 4:30 PM MST - MTN

If BYU loses, they can forget about any possibilities of being in a BCS bowl game. If they win though, things suddenly get interesting.

UCLA at No. 8 USC - 2:30 PM MST - ABC A victory over UCLA would qualify USC for a berth in the Rose Bowl. Last year, UCLA defeated USC 13-9.

Arizona at No. 13 Arizona State - 6:00 PM MST The Wildcats have won three straight including their most recent victory over then-No. 2 Oregon. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils are coming off a devastating 44-24 loss to USC.

Washington at No. 12 Hawaii - 9:30 PM MST Washington is going to be desperate to salvage their season after losing the annual Apple Cup on Saturday to Washington State. Meanwhile, Hawaii will be determined to stay in line for a BCS bowl game.

No. 7 LSU at No. 14 Tennessee - 2 PM MST - CBS LSU has only lost two games this season, both of which were triple-overtime contests. The Tigers' recently lost 50-48 against Arkansas.

Oregon State at No. 17 Oregon - 2:30 PM MST - ESPN2 Oregon lost star quarterback Dennis Dixon and dropped from No. 2 in the nation just two weeks ago. The Beavers have won five of their last six.